EDITORIAL
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EDITORIAL |
| A MEXICAN'S POINT OF VIEW Mexico Towards 2006 |
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The questions the media and many of us make today are: What will happen next year after the elections? Who will be our next president? Will there be any economic upheaval? What will happen inside PRI with the division it is facing? Will Lopez Obrador win? Will there be capitals flight? Will PAN receive punishment votes this time? Well, there are so many questions we read every day in Mexican and foreign media regarding Mexico; however, the bottom line is precisely the lack of certainty which did not exist some years ago, when everything could be figured in advanced. Nowadays we are unable to do so; as a result of the existing democracy. In two of the three largest political parties, there is internal struggle to become a presidential candidate. Undoubtedly the hardest fight is the one inside PRI. Even if the candidate is to be elected democratically, there is the risk today of, if you allow me, "shooting one's own foot." The struggle between the former PRI General Secretary, Elba Esther Gordillo, and the former Chairman of PRI National Executive Committee (CEN) and now presidential pre-candidate, Roberto Madrazo, has left the balance of internal division that puts at stake unity in said party. On the other hand, we must mention that the other candidate - who comes from a group that opposes Madrazo - Arturo Montiel has expressed some disagreements. Both Elba Esther and Montiel are against Roberto Madrazo's candidacy; Madrazo, on the other hand, worked to become a candidate when he was CEN Chairman.
The issue to analyze here is if Roberto Madrazo's strength inside PRI will allow him to be a strong presidential candidate, for he would face Lopez Obrador, his number one political enemy. In addition to heading polls, Lopez Obrador will "naturally" become the choice of those inside PRI who do not support Madrazo as their candidate.
However, I also consider that institutions in Mexico are strong enough and there are the required locks to prevent sudden changes that could generate a macroeconomic upheaval. I am convinced that the elections winner will hardly have a majority in the Congress, and there will therefore be a powers balance with the required locks I already mentioned. However, let's hope for the winning candidate to build the required "bridges" and work with the Congress to achieve the agreements required to implement the reforms Mexico so hardly requires. Unfortunately, the current administration has lacked the required political ability to reach agreements with the Congress, which results are the reality we all know. The good intentions that I do not doubt President Fox had, lacked the political tasks required to achieve the objectives set at the beginning of the administration. Mexico is heading towards a highly competed presidential election and any of the candidates would hardly obtain an absolute majority of votes, let alone a majority in Congress. Internal struggles in the parties have a political cost which will undoubtedly be capitalized by some contenders – no doubt they are aware of this - the issue is if they will understand it and try to avoid the division they are currently suffering. Transition towards 2006 is barely beginning and the questions we have today will be answered one at a time as elections' date approaches. However, I am convinced that economic soundness and stable institutions will prevent any damage that could arise from an "extreme left" government, because said government would be subject to a Congress where no party will have a majority.
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